Here you will find my comments on several
great statisticians. Most of them are controversial because of their
contributions on statistics. Note also that most of them were not trained
primarily as statisticians even though they were world famous for their
contributions to the subject. Shainin, for example, was an aeronautical
engineer and never had a course in statistics. Both Karl Pearson and
Ronald Fisher were probably more famous in eugenics than statistics.
William Gossett never gave up his career as a master brew master.
Dorian
Shainin (1914-2001)
was one of the earliest pioneers for Weibull analysis and engineering
statistics. He inspired the author to do a doctorate in statistics
(although Dorian thought it was a waste of time.). He led the team that
created "Precontrol," a means of using statistics to actually control a
process rather than just test the process to see if it is in statistical
control of its own accord. His "Random Balance" preceded Taguchi and was
equally controversial. His humor was endless. He claimed he drank carrot
juice and vodka; "I can get just as high but I can see better." In his
search for the "Red X," the root cause of mysterious problems, he created
a very large number of statistical methods such as "Step-Stress," and some
very clever investigative strategies. Dorian received every one of ASQ’s
major awards and was made an honorary member by the Board of Directors.
The consulting firm Dorian founded has continued as Shainin LLC. Dorian’s
son, Peter Shainin, is the manager of the firm and provided this picture.
E.J.
Gumbel (1891-1966) spent much of
his life studying the statistics of extreme values, (rare events). Born in
Germany he resisted the secret rearmament of Germany after World War I
and left. He did much of his research in the USA at NBS, now NIST. He and
Waloddi Weibull did a sabbatical together at Columbia University and
became good friends. Gumbel was fascinated by the fact that the Weibull
distribution and Extreme Value Type III minimum are the same distribution.
Extreme Value Type I is called the "Gumbel" distribution. It is employed
for predicting maximum and minimum values, flood levels, wind gusts, the
size of inclusions in metal. The Weibull and the Gumbel minimum are
related like the normal and the log normal through a logarithmic
transformation. One of his greatest contributions was to prove that if a
part or component had multiple failure modes and our interest was in the
first failure, Type III minimum, the Weibull, is the appropriate
distribution. This idea is called the "weakest link in the chain" theory
and is the reason that the Weibull is the world’s most popular
distribution for life data analysis.
William
S Gosset (1876-1937) earned a
degree in chemistry at Oxford, and joined the Guinness brewery firm in
1899. His work for Guinness led him investigate the statistical validity
of results obtained from small samples (previous statistical theory had
concentrated instead on large samples). His publications in Pearson's
journal Biometrika were signed "Student," in deference to Guinness company
policy forbidding publication by employees. His most important result was
known as the "Student's t" test or distribution, published in 1908. His
work founded the concept of quality control. He was the pioneer of small
sample analysis inventing "Student’s t," C4, and the "F" test.
The author considers him to be the
greatest statistician that ever lived. He inspired both Karl Pearson and
Ronald Fisher to develop small sample methods. Moreover among these three
peers he was the nice friendly person, the other two being outspoken and
arrogant. He was a communication link between these two arch enemies and
further, befriended Egon Pearson, Karl Pearson’s son, and Jerzy Neyman
When Gosset died unexpectedly in 1937, among the group, his loss was felt
most keenly by the Egon Pearson, who remarked perceptively:
"I think that there are so very many
things that we owe to 'Student' in the present statistical world. I would
like to interest people in him, his practical mindedness and his
simplicity of approach. It would be so easy for people to miss in the
picture that large part he played simply by being in touch, by
correspondence or personal meetings, with all the mathematical
statisticians of his day." [From "Acquiring
Statistics" by E Bruce Brooks]
Egon devoted much of his later life to
writing the book "Student" about Gosset and his relationship
with Fisher and Karl Pearson. Gosset became world famous as a statistician
but never gave up his pursuit of better beer. Another of his peers was
Florence Nightingale David* who was also a statistician. She said of the
group: "I saw the lot of them. Went fly fishing with Gosset. A nice man.
Went to Fisher's seminars with Cochran and that gang. Endured K P. Spent
three years with Neyman. Then I was on Egon Pearson's faculty for year."
Ronald Fisher considered Gossett to be
his best friend. Fisher wrote in Gossett’s obituary:
"Student’s work has shown that a better
course is open to us than that of adopting even the best available
estimate of the variance of the population; that, by finding the exact
sampling distribution of such an estimate, we may make allowance for its
sampling errors, so as to obtain a test of significance which, in spite of
these errors, is exact and rigorous. He thus rendered obsolete the
restriction that the sample must be "sufficiently large", a restriction
vaguely adumbrated by some previous writers, and ignored by others. The
claim that "Student’s" result is rigorous and exact has, of course, been
resented by advocates of "large sample" methods."
And further:
One immense advantage which "Student"
possessed was his concern with, and responsibility for, the practical
interpretation of experimental data. If more mathematicians shared this
advantage there can be no doubt that mathematical research would be more
fruitfully directed than it often is.
*Florence Nightingale David was named
after Florence Nightingale who raised nursing to a profession and was also
a famous statistician. She invented the pie chart for example. When she
tired of arguing with the English Generals for better field hospitals and
antiseptic methods, she would take a holiday in the country. She stayed
with the Davis family and they named their daughter after her. F. N. David
became a famous statistician.
Sir
Ronald Fisher (1890-1962)
on his desk
calculator at Whittinghome Lodge 1952, from "R. A. Fisher, The Life of a
Scientist," John Wiley & Sons 1978.
The
author thought Fisher was the greatest statistician of all time when he
went to England to study under Professor George Barnard, Fisher’s
disciple. Sir Ronald Fisher was a genius and dominated both statistics and
genetics during his lifetime. He developed most of what we know as
engineering statistics including maximum likelihood estimation, the design
of experiments, the theory of randomization, and the analysis of variance.
Inspired by Gosset, he developed many of the distributions of small sample
statistics. His lifelong war with Karl Pearson and later his son Egon
Pearson continues today as a friendly rivalry among the disciples. He was
friends with Egon Pearson until Egon (with Jerzy Neyman) invented
confidence intervals and tests of hypothesis. He was so opposed to these
concepts that the friendship ended. He was outspoken and arrogant,
unfriendly by all accounts. Egon Pearson’s book "Student" is an excellent
documentary of the trilogy: Karl Pearson, Ronald Fisher and William Gosset.
The author now rates Gosset the greatest, with Fisher second greatest.
Professor George Barnard wrote in
Fisher’s obituary about his contributions to the theory and practice of
statistics: "to assess the contributions made to a subject by one largely
responsible for its creation would be futile."
Egon
Sharpe Pearson (1895-1980). The
author was privileged to have attended many Royal Statistical Society
meetings in London with Egon Pearson. There was often friendly interaction
between Egon, George Barnard, Jeffries, D.R.Cox, G. Jenkins, and visitors
like G.E.P Box from America. Solutions from all three schools, Ronald
Fisher’s, Karl and Egon Pearson’s, and Bayesian were compared, sometimes
vigorously. Egon with Jerzy Neyman invented the frequency – confidence
interval school of inference, which ended his friendship with Fisher who
despised the concept. The concept of tests of significance and the null
hypothesis are among his other contributions. He had great admiration for
his dear friend, William Gosset, and in his final years he started a book
about Gosset, ["Student"] which my professor, George Barnard, finished
after Egon passed on. He was a gentleman and a wonderful teacher. Even
though the author shares Fisher and Deming"s negative views on confidence
intervals, I have always admired Egon Pearson and frequently use his
Biometrica Tables.
Jerzy Neyman (1894-1981) is
considered to be one of great founders of modern statistics. He made large
contributions in probability theory, testing hypothesis, confidence
intervals, generalized chi-square, and other areas of mathematical
statistics. He was born Jerzy Neyman in Bendery, Russia. Neyman was forced
to move to Poland due to the war between Poland and Russia. Neyman was 27
at the time. In Poland, Neyman worked with W. Sierpinski before moving to
London in 1924. Neyman studied under Karl Pearson while in London. He also
made contacts with Egon Pearson, R. A. Fisher, and W. S. Gosset while at
University College. By 1934, Karl Pearson had retired and his department
was divided between his son Egon and Fisher. Egon invited Neyman to work
with him. They worked on the theory of testing hypotheses. They supplied
logical foundation and mathematical rigor to the theory that was missing
in previous methodology. Their work was disputed by some mathematicians,
including Fisher. The Neyman-Pearson ideas eventually spread throughout
mathematics. Their ideas made sure that samples were large enough to avoid
false representation.
The theory of estimation by confidence
sets was Neyman’s next topic of choice. He used confidence intervals to
guarantee that the probability of covering the true value of the parameter
to be estimated was at least equal to a preassigned value called the
confidence coefficient. His uses soon appeared in many textbooks and works
on statistical methodology.
In 1937 Neyman accepted a position at the
University of California-Berkeley. He was asked to start a statistics
department at Berkeley. Many people question his decision, but Neyman took
the position because he was fearful of Hitler and the start of World War
II. It was at Berkeley, were he spent half of his life, that he came up
with his BAN (best asymptotically normal) estimation theory. The BAN
estimates now widely used in a manner similar to the use of least squares.
Here is a summary comment by another
great statistician: W E Deming was at University College in the 1930s, and
described the scene in a letter written at the time:
Karl Pearson and R A
Fisher disagree almost to the point of taking up arms on some questions
in statistics. K Pearson has no use for Student, either. Student and R A
Fisher stand together. Fisher can say nothing good of Neyman and
Pearson. I have heard from all sources that Egon Pearson is really a
prince of a fellow.
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